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Nvidia is at 35x revenue. Not earnings — revenue. That's dot-com territory. The actual technology is real, I'm not denying that. But the valuations are pricing in a future that hasn't happened yet, and we've seen how that ends.
Copilot and Cursor are already making developers faster — measurably, provably faster. I know startups running on smaller engineering teams because of these tools. That's not hype, that's just happening.
In 1999 pets.com was worth more than actual pet shops. Microsoft and Google are spending $300B+ because it's already cutting their costs and making them money. That's completely different. People keep saying "bubble" without explaining what the actual product failure is supposed to be.
Cisco had real revenue and real customers in 2000 and still dropped 86%. Having a business doesn't protect you from a valuation that's pricing in 10 years of growth right now. That's the actual risk.
Cisco was building for an internet that didn't have users yet. AI is going into software that already has millions of users and is already saving money. The payback period is months, not decades.
I cancelled three SaaS subscriptions this year and replaced them with one AI tool. It's cheaper and better. You can argue about valuations all you want but the actual adoption is real and it's already saving people money.
The technology is real but the valuations are not priced on what AI is doing today — they're priced on what people think it'll do in 5 years. That gap between today's cash flows and tomorrow's promises is what a bubble actually is.
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